Rising Oil Prices and Falling Dictators

The headlines and talk shows scream at us about the rising oil prices and Mideastern dictators falling like dominos. The stock market is scared and so the S&P500 has fallen 5% in the past week. Here we go again, you might say. Are we sliding back into another recession? These are very legitimate concerns but let’s look at the facts:



• The demand for oil is at an all time high. With the emerging markets of India and China coming on strong, they have an enormous appetite for oil. Increased oil prices should not be a surprise. It’s a fact of life and reflects our utter dependence on oil. Most economists will tell you that oil demand is on a continually upward sloping line so it stands to reason that oil prices will go up. And most economists are still bullish about the recovery and predict that gross domestic product (GDP) in the US will grow by 3.2% in 2011 and 2012. However, all bets are off if oil climbs to over $125/barrel. But that’s a long way to go.

• The fed is still predicting benign inflation for the next few years. How can this be with the rising oil prices? And food prices keep rising? If you look at food and energy costs as a percentage of family expenses, it comes to 13%. That is a small part of the whole pie. Housing and healthcare represents 38% and housing costs are sure not going to be inflated any time soon.

• Corporate earnings drive the stock market. Yes, the market has periods of increased jitters like we are seeing now but in the end and over time; it is corporate earnings that make the line go ever upward. And corporate earnings are expected to be 9-10% this year. Price earning (P/E) ratios for stocks is at 13 and the long term P/E ratio is 15. Stocks are still underpriced when you look at historical averages. Most economists predict another good year for stocks.

• The best mouse trap ever devised for creating wealth is an appropriate asset allocation financial plan. That means that you hold a combination of stocks, bonds, cash and real estate. That combination is dependent on your goals, your age and your risk tolerance. You own a diversified portfolio and you rebalance this portfolio every year. So, in a year when your stocks do well and you are now over allocated to stocks, you sell them and put the money into bonds. This is a disciplined non-emotional strategy and allows you to sell high and buy low. By doing this year after year, you ride the ups and downs but your portfolio steadily grows. More importantly, you sleep at night!