Meet Judy Stewart!

Judy Ann Stewart is the owner of Stewart Financial Services.  She has been offering life-centered and comprehensive financial planning services for 10 years.  She became a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) after serving as the President and CEO of Rancho Vista National Bank, a community bank that she and others founded in 1982.  Ms Stewart has a Masters in Business Administration and is an Enrolled Agent licensed by the IRS.  In 2003, she was honored to be named as one of the top 100 Financial Advisors in the Untied States by Mutual Funds Magazine. And in 2009, Ms Stewart is reconginized as one of the 2009 Five Star Wealth Managers in San Diego.
Ms Stewart is a member of Cambridge Advisors; a national network of fee-only financial advisors committed to serving the financial planning needs of Middle-America and is also a member of The National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, the largest fee-only financial planning association in the world. 
She attends and serves at Generation Church in Oceanside, California, and has traveled to Uganda in 2007 and 2008 to teach men and women basic business classes so that they can help lift themselves out of poverty. She resides in Oceanside, Ca., and Borrego Springs, Ca., with her husband, Bill and their two pets, a cat named Daisy Mae and a dog named Dakota.

Rising Oil Prices and Falling Dictators

The headlines and talk shows scream at us about the rising oil prices and Mideastern dictators falling like dominos. The stock market is scared and so the S&P500 has fallen 5% in the past week. Here we go again, you might say. Are we sliding back into another recession? These are very legitimate concerns but let’s look at the facts:



• The demand for oil is at an all time high. With the emerging markets of India and China coming on strong, they have an enormous appetite for oil. Increased oil prices should not be a surprise. It’s a fact of life and reflects our utter dependence on oil. Most economists will tell you that oil demand is on a continually upward sloping line so it stands to reason that oil prices will go up. And most economists are still bullish about the recovery and predict that gross domestic product (GDP) in the US will grow by 3.2% in 2011 and 2012. However, all bets are off if oil climbs to over $125/barrel. But that’s a long way to go.

• The fed is still predicting benign inflation for the next few years. How can this be with the rising oil prices? And food prices keep rising? If you look at food and energy costs as a percentage of family expenses, it comes to 13%. That is a small part of the whole pie. Housing and healthcare represents 38% and housing costs are sure not going to be inflated any time soon.

• Corporate earnings drive the stock market. Yes, the market has periods of increased jitters like we are seeing now but in the end and over time; it is corporate earnings that make the line go ever upward. And corporate earnings are expected to be 9-10% this year. Price earning (P/E) ratios for stocks is at 13 and the long term P/E ratio is 15. Stocks are still underpriced when you look at historical averages. Most economists predict another good year for stocks.

• The best mouse trap ever devised for creating wealth is an appropriate asset allocation financial plan. That means that you hold a combination of stocks, bonds, cash and real estate. That combination is dependent on your goals, your age and your risk tolerance. You own a diversified portfolio and you rebalance this portfolio every year. So, in a year when your stocks do well and you are now over allocated to stocks, you sell them and put the money into bonds. This is a disciplined non-emotional strategy and allows you to sell high and buy low. By doing this year after year, you ride the ups and downs but your portfolio steadily grows. More importantly, you sleep at night!

San Diego's A-List of Wealth Managers

Once again, I am very proud to announce that I have been chosen as a 'San Diego 2011 Five Star Wealth Manager' by San Diego Magazine. I love serving San Diego county, now including Borrego Springs! Thank you for everyone who voted for Stewart Financial Services. We work really hard to make your financial dreams a reality. 


From the article...


"With more than 11,000 wealth managers in the San Diego area, how do you find someone who listens to you, represents your interests and operates with an emphasis on integrity and service?


The resulting list of 2011 Five Star Wealth Managers is an elite group, representing less than 4 percent of the wealth managers in the San Diego area."


Thank you again San Diego! We continue to look forward to serving you in 2011! 

Tidbits from the TD Ameritrade Conference

Cheryl and l recently attended the annual TD Ameritrade National Conference in San Diego.  I can truly say that it was one of the best conferences I have ever attended.  While I will be sharing more specific information with clients one on one at meetings, here are some of the highlights:

 

General Colin Powell---He has unwavering faith and confidence in our nation and our people.  He sees great wealth created in certain countries over the next several years, countries like China, India and some of the Latin America countries.  This is good for the entire world because stability in the government and the economy is needed to create wealth.  We should not fear these emerging countries but rather embrace them.  The US is still the best place in the world to invest wealth.  Their success is our success.

Jeremy Siegel is a professor at the prestigious Wharton School of Finance in Pennsylvania.  Professor Siegel is still very bullish on stocks for the long run.  He showed charts that illustrate the real return (after taxes and inflation) of stocks from 1802-2010 is 6.7%.  The past 20 years from 1990-2010 (which includes the horrific recession of 2007-2008) shows the exact real return of stocks is 6.7%.  Cash and bonds cannot deliver this kind of return so it is prudent and imperative that in order to create wealth, an investor must be willing to invest in stocks.  He thinks the US market of good quality companies is poised to deliver strong returns over the next few years.  Price earning ratios are below the long term average and corporate earning are strong so therefore the price earning ratios will be rising.  He also showed charts that made a compelling argument to be investing in stable emerging markets such as China, India and some Latin America countries. 

Craig Alexander is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist for TD Ameritrade.  He said the US economy is on the mend.  We still have a long way to go but it is encouraging that we are on the road to recovery.  There are three key factors that will determine our recovery.  1.  Housing –currently we have approx 9 months supply of houses on the market versus 2005 when the supply was only 4 months.  We have too much product and there is more coming with short sales and foreclosures.  The housing market still has another 5% to decline in value before we hit bottom.  2.  Unemployment remains high at over 9% but he was optimistic that jobs are coming.  Companies have squeezed expenses all they can and are now experiencing growth due to increased demand for products and more access to credit.  This will result in slow job creation.  3)  State and local governments are struggling with reduced revenues and high liabilities to service.  Some states are worse than others like New Jersey, California etc… 

Bottom line is that Mr. Alexander also confirmed what Professor Siegel stated, the next few years will be good for equities.  Bonds will suffer and interest on cash will remain low but stocks will reward the wise investor.  

The Zen of Creativity

On the afternoon of the first day of the TD Ameritrade conference, I attended one of the most amazing and inspirational sessions I have ever had the good fortune to attend. Our speaker was Dewitt Jones, a former photographer with National Geographic Magazine. He is now a speaker in much demand and I can certainly understand why. He took us on an extraordinary journey with the many beautiful and unique photos that he has captured over the years. However, instead of just showing us photographs he used each picture to convey his message of “falling in love with the world” and “celebrating what’s best in the world.” His purpose was to teach us how to be creative, to think outside the box and to always search for a better answer. He demonstrated this by showing us many photos of a particular scene that he was trying to capture. Most of the photos were very good but there was usually one that so clearly stood out and captured the essence of what he was trying to get the viewer to experience, that it took your breath away.


In my own financial planning practice, I am always looking for the right solution for the client and most of the time I can come up with the right one. But Dewitt showed us that while we may have the right or best solution, there might be a better one out there and don’t give up until you get it! In order to get that better solution, you need to let yourself be fully engaged and fully in love with the process so that the creativity can flow and you do come up with that better answer.


Dewitt is clearly a man who loves life and all that it offers. A man who always looks at the glass as “half full”, an eternal optimist who believes that our world is an extraordinary place. He used an example from a meditation class that he attended. He had a difficult time concentrating on his breath in meditation as his mind continually wandered. His teacher told him to try the one breath meditation. Take it all in with one breath and give it all back. Take in everything the world can give you and give it all back out again. As a yoga practitioner myself, this totally resonated with me and my yoga practice will never be the same again. Thank you, Dewitt, for a most inspirational afternoon.