Rebate Checks

This article was written by Tedd Oyler, a Cambridge Finacial Planner in Michigan. He is a respected colleague of mine.


ECONOMIC STIMULUS
(A SKEPTIC’S VIEW)

OK, I see that I am going to receive a check from the government – maybe in May, maybe not – that is labeled a “tax rebate”. And I also see that I am expected to spend this money along with all of the rest of you in order to help the economy avert the recession that is predicted by so many of the experts.

Have I stated the undisputed facts correctly? I am not suggesting that it is factual that we are headed for a recession – just that the experts say we are.

If we can agree on the facts, then I’d like to delve into the facts behind the facts together.

If we are in a recession – or about to be in one – why? I sure do not know much about macroeconomics, but my layman’s understanding of the recent economic chatter tells me that we may have overspent ourselves into this purported recession. This was apparently accomplished because lenders made mortgage and credit card money available to us in gargantuan proportions, such that many of now owe much more than we can reasonably pay back.

A significant portion of this easy credit fueled a run-up of real estate prices (not “values” – there’s a difference between value and price) beyond levels that the market could truly support. Many of the mortgages were at 100% of the then-appraised “value”, meaning that any slippage in the market would render the mortgage upside down. The out-of-whack loan-to-value ratios, coupled with all the adjustable-rate loans and the ensuing entirely predictable increases in interest rates, have successfully created a thriving market in foreclosed properties.

In other words, over-lending and over-borrowing – in other words “over spending” – have us on the doorstep of the next recession. It is my understanding that economies go through recessions from time to time, so there is really nothing all that unusual about the predictions. What might be unusual here is the response of the geniuses we’ve elected to serve us.

This “stimulus” is really a return to us of tax money we’ve already paid in – which is actually an advance payment to us of a tax credit that will be available to us on our 2008 tax returns (to be filed a year from now), except that the President and Congress, in their profound responsiveness to economic theory, are also rebating tax dollars to folks who have not paid any in recently. I just shake my head – the Feds are in a pretty serious deficit-spending footing, so they give us back money that they will pay for by giving us a tax credit NEXT year. Meanwhile, all of this is financed by borrowing (T-Bills, savings bonds, etc) against future tax collections.

In other words, the Federal Government is borrowing from next year’s tax collection to pay us a few bucks this year, so that we’ll spend it to avoid predicted but not certain cyclical economic trending. And it is being done so as to incur interest costs of that borrowing well intro the future. Patriotism now means spend even if you don’t have it.

In still OTHER words, the President and Congress are modeling the very behavior that got us into this predicament.

Like I said, I just shake my head.

So, as a skeptic, I encourage you to stop the madness. I encourage you to not fall into the spending trap. When you get your little check this spring or summer, use it more wisely than the bankers who made bad loans and the debtors who borrowed too much and the Feds who are but pandering to your lower nature.

Here are some suggestions:
· If you have any credit card debt, pay your rebate towards that
· If you have no consumer debt, then pay the rebate towards home equity debt (not mortgage debt)
· If you have no consumer or home equity debt, then sock the rebate into a Roth IRA

If you find yourself drawn to spending the rebate on a new toy, then you are allowing yourself to be sucked into the spendthrift mindset that got us here. Just say “no”.